If I’ve learned one thing in my eighteen years of working with farmers, first as a produce buyer and now as CEO of The FruitGuys, it’s that farming is predictably unpredictable. If you have the right balance of nutrients in your soil, plant the right crop at the right time, and get lucky with the weather, then you grow beautiful produce. But if any of those inputs go astray—well, who knows? Still, we can’t help but try to predict the future. Here are the top agriculture trends my team and I are watching in 2025.

1. Climate Change Mitigation

The climate is changing, and it’s bringing extreme weather with it. Just a few weeks ago it snowed ten inches in New Orleans. My parents grew up in Louisiana, and in their eighty years, they remember seeing maybe one flurry. Big storms, abnormally high or low temperatures, and shifts in rainfall can be detrimental to crops, so the farmers we work with at The FruitGuys are getting creative to protect what they grow.

One of our farm partners in Pennsylvania installed a frost mitigation system to help protect their trees in cold weather. It's essentially a large wind turbine that can move air through sections of the orchard, helping raise the temperature. Another farm we work with in California, where water can be scarce, is using moisture monitoring devices in its orchards to measure water content in the soil. I can’t predict what kind of weather is coming this year, but I’m sure it will continue pushing farmers to innovate.

2. Specialty Produce

Ever since POM Wonderful made pomegranates a household name, companies have marketed specialty produce items to generate buzz and excitement, and I expect that trend to continue in 2025. We’ve seen an uptick in interest in everything from new apple varieties like the Hidden Rose® with its pink and white flesh to tiny Kishu mandarins. (I’ve loved Kishus for years, and this year they appeared in my local Trader Joe's. In the past we could only get them for a few weeks from a small grower.) Farmers may be able to take advantage of this trend by branching out into new and unexpected varieties, from pink pineapples to tiny broccoli, to surprise and delight buyers.

3. Food as Medicine

People have long believed that food is medicine and can help combat or cure illness, but the idea is still gaining traction, especially with younger generations. Surveys have shown that Gen Z cares deeply about their health and will invest time in preventive care and holistic, natural approaches. We’ve also seen an increased interest in prescription meal kits and fresh produce boxes to help with conditions like type 2 diabetes. In 2025, I expect we’ll see greater demand for fresh produce to satisfy this interest in clean eating and plant-based diets full of fruits and vegetables.

4. Transparency

Our customers increasingly want to know about their farmers and how their produce is grown so that they can align their purchases with their values. They’re looking for products with specific certifications and purposefully supporting farms that are diverse in terms of ownership and ethnic background. In some cases, they want to know about employment practices as well, and they’re more conscious about the environmental impact of their choices.

Here at The FruitGuys, we’ve seen this show up as an increased interest in our Farm-Fit program, which partners small; local; Black, Indigenous, or People of Color (BIPOC) farms with institutional food service programs. A diverse food system is a strong food system, and many businesses and consumers alike are looking to support farms owned by people from marginalized communities.

This trend isn’t new, but farmers who are transparent about who they are and what they do will continue to have a leg up. So will farmers who use regenerative practices to improve soil health and reduce the possibility of any negative impact on the planet. It’s more important than ever for growers to connect with their consumers in person at farmers markets or on social media to tell their stories and help build trust. Clearly labeling products with growing practices, certifications, and ownership status may also help get the word out.

5. Food Hubs and Co-ops

In recent months, we’ve seen more farmers come together to help share the operational or administrative burdens of running their farms. Food hubs and co-ops aren’t new (Sunkist, probably the most famous agricultural co-op and the first one in the US, started in 1893) but they’re rapidly growing in number. This trend allows smaller farms to gain access to markets that they might not have reached otherwise.

7. Food in Politics

President Trump’s executive orders placing 25% tariffs on many Mexican and Canadian imports are on hold as I write this. But if the tariffs proceed, we’ll see the cost of imported goods increase. This could make fertilizers and other items farmers use more expensive. (Over 80% of the US supply of a key fertilizer ingredient, potash, comes from Canada.) It may also decrease demand for exports from larger farms. On a positive note, it could also reduce competition for small farms competing with cheaper Mexican produce.

The agricultural community is also watching the threat of mass deportations closely. Many farms rely on immigrant labor, and even when those immigrants are in the US legally, there’s still a level of uncertainty and concern within the community. That uncertainty may lead to a reduction in available labor which could make growing and harvesting food more difficult.

As we move into 2025, one thing remains certain: a complex mix of environmental, economic, and social factors will continue to shape our agricultural system. While I can’t predict every challenge or opportunity the year will bring, I’m hopeful. I know that the dedication and innovation happening on small farms will keep driving the industry forward—and that companies like The FruitGuys will keep supporting them.